The Empire Codes | Episode III | The Tariff Guillotine

Introduction

On 28 May 2025, in V.O.S. Selections, Inc. v. Trump, the US Court of International Trade ruled that the President had exceeded his statutory authority when imposing the challenged tariffs under IEEPA. ^[1] The ruling made headlines for a day. It was temporarily stayed the next day, with a stay pending appeal following on 10 June, and the question it raised, whether IEEPA gave the President the power to impose tariffs without the limits Congress normally sets, took another nine months to be settled by the Supreme Court.

However, the tariff is only the visible part of the equation. What determines whether goods actually arrive at their destination is the legal machinery sitting behind the system. The licences, insurance companies, banks, freight forwarders and compliance rules all have a role to play. Under the Russian oil price-cap regime, for example, access to covered maritime services, including insurance, can depend on documented attestations, due diligence and accurate recordkeeping. ^{[2] [4]} The public simply sees the tariff being imposed without seeing the huge system sitting behind it. The compliance chain controls whether the corridor remains open.

This episode of The Empire Codes documents the machinery behind the headlines. The tariff guillotine is not one instrument. The tariff is the visible blade. Around it sit separate sanctions regimes, export controls, licensing systems and compliance chains that can restrict access in different ways.

The race against the trains

Episode I followed the older architecture of control: we looked at what happens when territory is disputed, when maritime routes are contested, and when trade still depends on the shipping chokepoints it has to pass through. Episode II showed how control can move away from territory altogether, into the courts, through sanctions, recognition and the permissions that determine who is allowed access.

This episode follows the next layer of control. We ask what happens when that same struggle over access moves into the international trade system itself.

That system is not disappearing or being replaced, but it is under pressure from multiple directions. The China-Europe Railway Express provides an already established overland freight route; DHL describes typical delivery times of around twenty-three to twenty-five days on a route that doesn’t depend on the Suez Canal. ^[12] The International North-South Transport Corridor is being developed to connect trade from India, through Iran and into Russia. In 2023, Russia and Iran agreed to finance and construct the Rasht-Astara railway, an important missing connection in the transport corridor. ^[13]

Financial alternatives are developing too. HSBC’s Hong Kong unit has joined China’s Cross-Border Interbank Payment System, while Project mBridge reached a minimum viable product stage in 2024, although the BIS said it was still not mature enough to begin operating, before stepping away from the project later that year. ^{[14] [15]} These systems do not replace the dominant dollar system or maritime trade, and probably will not any time soon. But they do represent something important: there are more alternative routes than there used to be, and every route that actually works reduces dependence on the existing machine.

As things stand, I cannot prove that tariffs are being used more aggressively because these alternative routes are becoming more viable. What I can show is that both things are happening at the same time, and I think the timing matters. The alternatives are becoming more credible while the existing economic weapons continue to be used, tested and, as we will see, replaced with different legal routes when one avenue closes.

This episode follows both sides of that contest: the guillotine that still cuts, and the infrastructure being built to reduce the damage it can inflict.